Thinkscape predicts the Tyson vs Paul fight will break Viewership Records
At Unanimous, we don’t replace people with AI, we turn large human groups into “artificial experts” that can quickly generate insights that are significantly more accurate than polls, surveys, interviews, or focus groups.
Yesterday took aim at the latest high-profile sporting event: the fight between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul that will air exclusively on Netflix on Friday night. Considering this is not a title fight and that Mike Tyson retired from boxing two decades ago, we had to ask: Is this really an event that millions will watch?
Our prediction is an BIG YES.
In fact, we believe this Netflix boxing match is likely to be the highest viewership sporting event on ever to appear exclusively on a streaming platform, with over 25M watching live this Friday. For context, the last Superbowl (on network TV) drew 124M viewers.
To make this prediction, we gathered 107 casual sports fans (randomly selected) in our Thinkscape platform and had them deliberate conversationally as a real-time “collective superintelligence” that can generate far deeper insights than traditional polls, surveys, interviews, or focus groups. The first thing we asked them was: “Based on the people you know (friends, family, coworkers, etc.) will the Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul fight really be one of the most watched boxing matches in recent history and why?”
After they debated the issue, we had the participants use our unique graphical Swarm feature inside Thinkscape to converge on a probabilistic prediction as to whether more than 25M viewers would watch the event live on Netflix, a milestone that would make it the most watched sporting event on a streaming platform ever.
The following video was generated using the output from Thinkscape. It gives the core reasons why this group of 100 sports fans believes that this event will have record-breaking viewership and shows the graphical swarm converging on a probabilistic forecast:
UPDATE 11.16.24:
By Unanimous Decision: According to the promoters, the event drew over 100M viewers, making it the most watched streaming event ever by over 4X. In fact, the viewership was so much higher than even Netflix expected, it crashed their servers and froze for hundreds of thousands of viewers around the US.
And of course, the boxing itself between Tyson and Paul was panned by just about everyone in sports, even called farcical by the BBC. And yet, it drew the crowd. Only the undercard woman's title fight saved the day.
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